People are still talking about the Patriots giving the game away on fourth and two Sunday night. Allow me to put the debate to rest.
Disclaimer: what follows will initially sound as though I am defending Bill Belichick. I assure you, this is not, nor will it ever be, the case.
Many people claim they can't understand why Belichick decided not to punt from his own 30 with two minutes left and the best quarterback in football waiting to take over. And that is why these people are not multi-Super Bowl-winning NFL coaches. Say what you will about whether you
agree with the call or not, it's not hard to see why he made it: the
percentages say it gave him the better chance to win. They convert most fourth downs. Going for it on that fourth down gave them a 79% chance to win. Punting gave them a 70% chance to win. Add to that the fact that the Patriots defense had just given up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and it's not hard to see why he did it.
Of course, this calculation completely ignores the intangibles of the game that statistics ignore -- momentum, home field advantage, the opposing quarterback, etc. But my point here is that I actually don't mind the call. In fact, I actually
like the call. You're supposed to have a high-powered offense. If going for it on fourth down gives you the best chance to win, two cracks at two yards shouldn't be an impossible feat. Punting there would have been the face-saving move for a head coach, but not necessarily the smart one.
What I
don't like -- at all -- was the play call. Across the field pass to a back-up running back? It was ugly, and the fact that it almost worked was luck more than anything else. These Patriots have never missed Josh McDaniels so much. Nor do I like the fact that the Patriots defense shut down completely in the fourth quarter. I mean,
I like it personally, but it was objectively bad for the Patriots. That game was won, and the defense handed it away long before that fourth and two.
So blame the crappy play-calling. Blame the shoddy defense. But don't blame a decision based on objective probabilities just because it came up wrong this time out.
But don't get me wrong: still blame Belichick.
Please, blame Belichick.